A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
